Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 19,532
2 New Jersey 18,298
3 Massachusetts 14,807
4 Rhode Island 14,466
5 District of Columbia 12,922
6 Connecticut 12,127
7 Delaware 10,008
8 Illinois 9,876
9 Maryland 9,343
10 Louisiana 8,964
11 Nebraska 7,814
12 Iowa 6,637
13 Pennsylvania 6,126
14 South Dakota 5,931
15 Michigan 5,929
16 Virginia 5,606
17 Mississippi 5,564
18 Indiana 5,496
19 Colorado 4,748
20 Minnesota 4,660
21 Georgia 4,476
22 New Mexico 3,983
23 Alabama 3,889
24 Tennessee 3,715
25 New Hampshire 3,586
26 North Dakota 3,554
27 Kansas 3,546
28 Wisconsin 3,447
29 Utah 3,386
30 Ohio 3,189
31 Arizona 3,134
32 Washington 3,115
33 California 3,110
34 North Carolina 3,077
35 Nevada 2,960
36 Florida 2,801
37 Arkansas 2,791
38 South Carolina 2,525
39 Texas 2,460
40 Kentucky 2,413
41 Missouri 2,327
42 Maine 1,819
43 Oklahoma 1,745
44 Idaho 1,708
45 Vermont 1,644
46 Wyoming 1,591
47 Puerto Rico 1,411
48 West Virginia 1,172
49 Oregon 1,060
50 Alaska 740
51 Montana 504
52 Hawaii 454

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Maryland 135
2 Nebraska 133
3 District of Columbia 124
4 Arizona 123
5 Iowa 121
6 Arkansas 108
7 Rhode Island 105
8 Tennessee 104
9 Virginia 95
10 North Carolina 92
11 Illinois 91
12 Mississippi 90
13 Louisiana 87
14 New Mexico 87
15 Utah 86
16 Wisconsin 86
17 South Dakota 80
18 Puerto Rico 66
19 Indiana 65
20 Minnesota 63
21 California 61
22 Massachusetts 60
23 New Jersey 60
24 Texas 60
25 New York 59
26 Georgia 55
27 South Carolina 55
28 Florida 52
29 Delaware 48
30 Kentucky 47
31 Connecticut 46
32 New Hampshire 46
33 Colorado 45
34 Nevada 45
35 Pennsylvania 44
36 Missouri 41
37 Ohio 37
38 Alabama 36
39 North Dakota 35
40 Washington 31
41 Alaska 30
42 Oklahoma 28
43 Idaho 27
44 Kansas 26
45 Michigan 26
46 Maine 24
47 Vermont 22
48 Oregon 13
49 West Virginia 13
50 Montana 6
51 Wyoming 6
52 Hawaii 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New York 1,542
2 New Jersey 1,347
3 Connecticut 1,123
4 Massachusetts 1,044
5 Rhode Island 713
6 District of Columbia 673
7 Louisiana 620
8 Michigan 561
9 Pennsylvania 457
10 Illinois 455
11 Maryland 441
12 Delaware 396
13 Indiana 331
14 Mississippi 266
15 Colorado 262
16 New Hampshire 200
17 Ohio 200
18 Georgia 199
19 Minnesota 199
20 Iowa 187
21 New Mexico 182
22 Virginia 169
23 Washington 151
24 Nevada 139
25 Arizona 137
26 Alabama 133
27 Missouri 131
28 Florida 121
29 California 113
30 Wisconsin 107
31 Kentucky 104
32 South Carolina 101
33 Nebraska 99
34 North Carolina 94
35 North Dakota 90
36 Vermont 88
37 Oklahoma 86
38 Kansas 78
39 South Dakota 72
40 Maine 70
41 Texas 61
42 Tennessee 58
43 Arkansas 50
44 Idaho 46
45 West Virginia 44
46 Puerto Rico 43
47 Oregon 37
48 Utah 36
49 Wyoming 29
50 Montana 15
51 Alaska 13
52 Hawaii 12

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Rhode Island 11
2 New Jersey 9
3 Illinois 8
4 Massachusetts 8
5 Pennsylvania 7
6 Delaware 6
7 Maryland 6
8 Mississippi 6
9 New Hampshire 6
10 Louisiana 5
11 Connecticut 4
12 Indiana 4
13 New York 4
14 Arizona 3
15 Colorado 3
16 District of Columbia 3
17 Iowa 3
18 Minnesota 3
19 New Mexico 3
20 Ohio 3
21 Florida 2
22 Michigan 2
23 North Carolina 2
24 North Dakota 2
25 Virginia 2
26 Arkansas 1
27 California 1
28 Georgia 1
29 Kansas 1
30 Kentucky 1
31 Maine 1
32 Missouri 1
33 Nebraska 1
34 South Carolina 1
35 Tennessee 1
36 Texas 1
37 Wisconsin 1
38 Alabama 0
39 Alaska 0
40 Hawaii 0
41 Idaho 0
42 Montana 0
43 Nevada 0
44 Oklahoma 0
45 Oregon 0
46 Puerto Rico 0
47 South Dakota 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 123,538 1 99
Lake Tennessee 113,170 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 84,690 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 75,630 4 99
Nobles Minnesota 72,218 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 8,400 261 91
Richland South Carolina 3,870 697 77
Pierce Washington 2,220 1122 64
Orange California 2,185 1142 63
York South Carolina 1,541 1453 53

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Early Georgia 3,140 1 99
Terrell Georgia 3,048 2 99
Hancock Georgia 2,956 3 99
Randolph Georgia 2,803 4 99
Northampton Virginia 2,135 5 99
Richland South Carolina 161 619 80
Davidson Tennessee 95 856 72
Pierce Washington 92 885 71
Orange California 52 1199 61
York South Carolina 36 1383 55

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons